Vooluspa

Before the storm breaks

2012-02-10T15:05:00.000+01:00

Nearly 2 year ago I stopped writing on the blog. From time to time I wondered why it seemed like I couldn't write another word. Since march 2010 a lot of things has happened, but mostly of 2 sorts; Stalling or events that progress toward chaos. This is the last draft I wrote 2010, but did not publish.

The Nina over-iced winter 2010

"I have not written in a long time. I needed a break to think things over, see patterns evolve.

2 major movements have taken place the last 6 months.

- Peak oil is now (all most) mainstream.

- Banks have taken a much unwanted centre-stage in public consciousness.

Peak oil before the breakthrough.

At the latest ASPO conference in the US a hole new group of speakers took the stage. Peakoil has the last several years bin off-topic only discussed by die-hard's and smeared by bought of lobby consultants. Those believing in the theory of Peak oil (many working in the oil industry) has also bin called the Peak oil movement which is sort of an irony since Peak oil is science. For many years the Peak oil "movement" was compared to the other movements in the field of conspiracy theories. Many years has been utterly wasted because of this tactic.

But now it is very clear that a group of early (public and professional) adapters has entered the stage. I am convinced they are the 2nd wave coming just before Peak oil goes mainstream.

Seen in the rear-mirror the case for Peak-oil was clear ~2004 in the public domain. Insiders from the oil-industry and several major governments seems to have known about Peak oil as early as 1999. To stall and hinder a topic as important as Peak oil is no less than criminal conduct. 11 years has been wasted - a time mainly used focusing on 2 major (oil) wars and the art of inflating real-estate.

A shy banker takes centre stage.

I have spend the last 6 month reading about money, thinking about money - back and forth, back and forth, and then there is the banks.

One of the

One of the absolutely most amazing facts about banks and the monetary is how little most people know about bank and what money are, despite the nearly daily contact with both money and the bank."

I now have had the time to ponder and some time has passed.
Several patterns has become even clearer.
- Peak-oil is no longer a topic, mostly because we are so focused on the economy, thereby ignoring the connection between available energy and money, thereby making it impossible to act accordantly toward a solution. Still at the roadside, out of money - not out of gas.

Banks has been in focus since 2008 and still is, BUT 4 years into a crises created by the banks and the bank-system the discussions about WHY the banking-system create these problems is still only skin-deep. Any trustworthy solution to the underlying problems in the current monetary system is still sci-fi and is only talked about in fringe-communities.

I'm pretty sure now I stopped writing because I really did not like the way this was going and that future felt suffocating - I could not get around the fact that I was beginning to question the good and right in man himself.

Meanwhile...
A new pattern is becoming clear - THE SILENCE.
A scientific breakthrough paves way for a new humanism - OUR ORIGIN.

More on these topics in the next post.

Will the car run out of gas or did I forget to fill it up?

2010-03-29T09:47:00.000+02:00

This might seem like a very stupid question, but it have some real impact on the way act to the energy question. I was on an oil-meeting the other week and we talked about 200$ oil - more specific when oil will hit 200$. Some said we might not hit 200$/barrel, because the economy would take a dive long before 200$ - It might not reach 100$ before it would turn the economy in to recession again. If that happens its not curtain that any fingers will be pointed at the oil, but all talk will be about the "bad" economy. Then we will miss the point that the energy-price is bringing down the economy (again) and miss that we have an energy crisis, but look to the politicians or the bankers to fix the "money" problem.
when we hit 147$/barrel Juli 2008 it was clear to all (in mass-media) that there where an oil(price)problem, but when the world monetary system nearly collapsed 2 month later (October 2008) all talk of oil disappeared and to this day only a small group of die-hards have made the connection between oil and money. That the oil got to 147$ in the first placed was probably because of "good" state of the world economy up to crash - If the the general state of the world economy had bin worse when oil-demand outstripped supply and there way a price ramp-up, the price might not had passed 100$ before the "bad" economy had destroyed demand.
If I have 5 liters of gasoline left in the car, but no money to buy more gasoline, I would probably not think that I have a "gasoline problem" but likely think I'm a poor man (unsuccessful pathetic broke idiot) that need to get some money.
If I drive the car and it run out of gas, THEN I will think that I have an acute gasoline problem.

One of the BIG challenges right now is to promote the connection between oil (energy) and money.

The case off the Open Solar panel controler - 1

2010-03-02T20:41:00.000+01:00

Here it is - a real beauty. It so simple I can make it (alone - no help). Its cheap, no micro-components.. Its build on the Arduino project. Its scalable (if I have a large solar-panel array). Its open hardware.
Oh and its for controlling the charging of lead-acid batteries with solar-panels. If you don't control the power coming from the solar-panels it ends up cocking all the water out of the batteries (and that kills the batteries for good). I want one of these and I do in fact also need one one for my 2 55w solar-panels.
A nice fellow - Tim Nolan has put a lot of effort in this project and I really like the documentation.

Then comes the hard part - finding the right parts. Tim live in the states and he shoppes from shops there, in the states. I could do the same (same shops), but that have drawbacks.

Difficult to return parts if parts are defect and its expensive.
My packet could be intercepted in customs. Beside for the 2 week extra delay, there a possible extra cost.
The packet could be lost somewhere in transit (it happens).

So I opt for baying as close as possible to home. Then comes the problem - parts are parts are parts. Very often parts in USA is not called the same as the same part in EU. Then there is the problem of resellers naming the part something else so you can't compare prices with another reseller.

An example: The project needs a MAX4173H ic-chip. Very well.. its a chip for charging batteries.. where to find?

Elfa don't have MAX4173H, but they do have MAX4172ESA and it seems to be doing the same... but i don't know for sure.. I'm not an electric engineer. The chip cost 4 euros and it feels like a very stupid problem.
If I google MAX4173H:.se and uk and dk and de and no - no hit.

Its the tower of babel all over again..

More later (when I have tracked down the elusive parts).

Competition! The dream of the electric ship, or ferry, or something to keep us going on the current course.

2010-02-27T00:14:00.005+01:00

What does this ship make you think of? Give me your best, win a big prize.

2bFrank sees this parallel:

Im more in this direction..

Anon thinks of this.

The open service packet service - idea.

2010-02-23T14:33:00.002+01:00

The Open Packet Service (OPS), work just like the backbone of the Internet (the IP protocol) with a twist.

How it works:

I want to send a packet to my friend living a 100 km from me. I go to the Internet website for OPS and I plots in where I live and where I want the packet to go. OPS then suggests how much I should "CHARGE" the packet with - lets say 50 bobs. I pay 50 bobs to OPS. Then OPS puts on the Internet that a packet is waiting at my house for pickup and that there is 50 bobs to be made if you deliver this packet. Now here comes the beautiful part. Someone sees this message (on the OPS site) and he is going by my house anyways so he picks up the packet. He would love to take the packet all the way to the receiver, but he can only take it half the way. Fortunately there is a small OPS trading post half way on route (It a small shop of any sort with Internet connection). He hands in the packet in at the OBS trading post - This is being registered at OBS and he gets his cut of the 50 bobs - Lets say he gets 23 bobs. Then the packet lays at the OBS trading post - Charged with 25 bobs (the shop-keeper gets 2 for his service). Another person sees the packet on the Internet an picks up the packet and deliver it to the receiver, earning him 25 bobs (when my friend tells OPS that the packet is being received).
That is Open Service Packet service!

As long as the packet gets nearer to its destination you can ear money.
A traveler can pick up several packets on the way earning more money on the way.
If a packet gets stock on its way (or you think it goes to slow) to the destination, it can be "overcharged" where it is (because you can see where its stuck on-line).

Most cars only travel with 1 passenger, this could be a way to make that car travel a bit more reasonable (and economic).

The infrastructure making OPS possible is all in place (Internet, VISA, mobile phones, people, cars, boats etc.).

There is one several obstacles that need to be worked out in order to make the system work.

Make it possible for citizens to earn micro-money (there is a tax bureaucracy issue here).
Get around the argument that OPS will be used to carry illegal substances eg. drugs. When I have discussed OPS with friends they all mention this - but I cant see how this differs from other postal-services. Maybe a solution is to carry OPS packets in transparent plastic wrap.
What if the packet is lost on the way? Who is responsible? Again I think there is a workaround to the problem. When the OPS-traveler picks up the packet he gets liable for a specified amount and if he loses the packet the sender is compensated.

You can say that OPS is just the file-sharing network of real-world packets. People do it all the time through friends (can you take this and give it to..), OPS is just a more organized way of doing it. This is to me what getting organized is all about.

Background:
I live on an island in Sweden and this comes with mixed blessings, one of them being trying to get a packet from "overseas". Several times I have ordered items from Australia and Hong Kong. I can follow the packet via the wonders of the Internet a see how Its getting nearer and nearer - Until it gets to Sweden then it stops. Nothing happens. 3 days later I get a letter telling me that I can pick up my FEDEX/USB etc. packet at the local post-office (5 km from here and not the nearest post-office). Trying to SEND a packet from this place ANYWHERE, and that includes just across the island, is very expensive and slow or maybe impossible.

Why you ask am I so hung up on sending or getting a packet you may ask?
The answer is that the second I want a spare part or something that is not a consumer goods that is pre-chewed and forced-feed my through proper channels I'm in trouble.
If I try to get my friends on the other site of the island something they need, I don't think it should be cheaper and a lot easier to drive a 100 km in order to do this.
The postal service has gone from bad to worse the last 20 years. Service is gone and the postman can not as before deliver anything or pick anything up (still unemployment is rising..).
If we are to able to save energy, travel less, make things last longer, repair stuff - we must have a working postal service. Before the state thought is was vital to have a working postal service - I gees its why they chose to own it - now 5 to 12, 10 minutes before we really need it, its sold of and dismantled.

That made me think of the idea of the Open Packet Service (OPS).

______________________________
Small update (24/2-2010). Announcement; The Swedish postal service is to be cut by 2000 (more).

Resilience

2010-02-15T19:21:00.001+01:00

Wikipedia: Resilience is the ability of a material to recover from a shock, insult, or disturbance.
Its also psychological resilience. We need both physical and psychological resilience in the near future. Another way to view resilience is short-term and long-term resilience. My mother told me about a 1960 short-film describing how the whole of society is hanging in a tread - and that is how vulnerable the society is. Resilience is the opposite to this.

Psychological resilience.
As I have described earlier we have become true believers in progress and a better society (still praying to the unknown God). So if we are meet with the opposite (a crises), most people will react badly to this - denial, anger (especially at the messenger), despair and so on. We need psychological resilience to deal with the crises and we need resilience in dealing with the transition to a carbon starved future.

The Swedish state has a department called Department for psychological defense - www.psycdef.se (this sends you to another URL with a more acceptable name).

The goal of the Swedish PsyDef is;
"The task of the MSB is to enhance and support societal capacities for preparedness for and prevention of emergencies and crises. When one does occur, we support the stakeholders involved by taking the right measures to control the situation".

That sounds very good - maybe the word "stakeholders" is a little strange. Does that mean the citizens or does it mean the institutions, the government?

There is a dilemma when you try to build up the resilience in the country.
One of the most destructive forces that can be unleashed in a country is panic and chaos. Ex. looting can destroy a working society in short time (see Iraq).
To get through the first shock without panic and chaos is vital. Therefore you want the citizens to be calm in a crises and the listen to the authorities.
THEN you want the citizens to have personal resilience and stamina, being able to cope without authorities (for a while). The state knows it can not be everywhere in times of crises and that people have to make it through on there own.
So there is needed 2 sorts of resilience:

Shock resilience (short term, trusting authorities, centralized)
Abandonment resilience (long term, self sustaining, localized)

Shock resilience is mostly needed in case of a war, a great catastrophe, breakdown of the banking system or the electric grid, an outbreak of a pandemic, in the hours and days following the crises.

Abandonment resilience is needed needed in the aftermath of war, catastrophes and is needed to cope with slow moving negative changes like rising unemployment, rising prices, shortages, living with the consequences of interruptions in the electric grid, the banking system, in the month following the crises.

Physical resilience.
This can be translated to sustainability, invulnerability, independence, durability.
Often described as the capacity to keep vital parts of the society functioning (mostly police, hospitals, government, military, banking system, electric power is meant by that). Ideas of self sustainability has long been abandoned and the trend going towards globalism. Ideas of local self independence is not part of any central governments thinking or policy. Some local people think about this, but when it comes to actually prioritize and build resilience in the rural areas there is nothing. The trend since 1960 has been going towards centralization.
Again its reasonable to talk in terms of short and long time resilience in the society.
The development of bigger faster machines and transportation plus pervasive communication technology has greatly improved the short term resilience since WW2, but the long term resilience is since WW2 been greatly reduced. A power-cut will cripple the society instantly and the petrol reserve will last max. 90 days. After 90 days are we in very unplaned territory.
The long term physical resilience is just not there - lack of petrol and lack of spare-parts will grind the current society structure to a halt.

The planing for long term resilience was on mind of those in power after the war, but this focus withered away gradually until it was silently totally gone somewhere in the late 1980s.
I have found an example of some one of the last long term resilience efforts.
As late as 1980 there was still a university department in Sweden looking in to how the biggest Swedish car manufacture could prepare Volvo cars to run on gasified wood gas if needed. During the second world war more than 1.000.000 cars and trucks was modified to run on wood-gas. It was this effort made it possible to have continuation of the civil society during the war. This lesson was finally lost 1986 and today we are even more vulnerable than 1939 because modern cars can for the most not be modified to run on wood-gas without a major intrusive intervention on the car. Read more on www.gengas.nu och här.

Here is another sad story from Sweden. This story is of now. The expansion of wind power is being hampered by many "stakeholders", one of them being the military. Modern wind turbines are big and they shadow the radars of the military. That means that the military turns down many application for wind turbines. The military do this on the base of national security (and has done for many years). That brings us to question of national security and that brings us to the question of resilience - short term and long term. A more energy independent Sweden would be more resilient and more secure as I understand security - national security. Today Sweden is participation in the "operation" in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is about natural gas and gas-pipelines. I doubt very much that Sweden would be there if Sweden was energy independent - fighting wars in faraway countries is a question of national security and I don't believe its a good solution to our energy dependency (I'm not interested in the moral aspect of the question). Permitting Sweden to become this vulnerable to factors we can not control in countries very far from Sweden is irresponsible to say the least. This policy has weakened the Swedish (and EUs and USAs) national security to a state where we have to be aggressors in order to get the resources we need. This is the result of a very faulted security policy. That politicians have acted in this short-sided manor is not surprising, but how security expert within the military and intelligence haven't protested loudly during the last 35 years is a mystery to me. To build the wellbeing of the society on a dwindling oil resource is more than critical. The facts have been around for 35 years! Even the US military has faced the facts. And again its not me and some other nobodies who think that the peak oil is a fact - Its the IEA, The International Energy Agency. We are prepare for the Ruskies, but not trivial facts of live.

And when it comes to preparing the population for a carbon-starved future the policy's are just as depressing. Somehow the risk of scaring people and thereby damaging the stock marked outweighs the risk of social chaos and shock when the bubble burst. This is VERY much contra to what the whole idea of a psychological defense. The trust in authorities is paramount in times to come and the time has come to face the facts - The stock marked and the financial system can not be saved by optimism. The last bailout was the last bailout and it kept us warm for 1,5 years, but the smile is wearing thin. Trust is a hard won currency. Who is going to listen politicians excusing them self, saying that nobody could have known? The public servants should consider how they can keep some of their credibility in the coming times.
I'm afraid the only plan is the "don't panic - help will come" and that is not a plan.

Toolbox for a future - 4 - Community

2010-02-09T16:44:00.000+01:00

I think it went down like this, for centuries where we forced to live together, we needed one-another to make do especially in the daily live. Needed not in an emotional sense, but in a very concrete and physical way - it was a question of survival. Marriage was a lot more than love - more like a cooperative (thats not best foundation for a happy marriage). Houses where small and people where cramped together with no private space and labor was hard. That we dreamed of freedom and private space and independence is no mystery. Then came the possibility to become more independent. First we got free from the large extended family, then later from the the closer family itself. We cut away connections because we could, because they where not needed anymore (this only the story of the western people, most people of the 3rd world still regard the extended family as close family).

The transition to a sustainable future will bring us closer together - for better and for worse. The current state of affairs is mostly characterized by fragmentation. We can (could) live a whole life not knowing or talking to the next door neighbor and we let the state and firms take care of everyday needs. I am pretty sure we are seeing the beginning of a smaller state and fever companies - not because I want to see it, but as a consequence of less resources. That will put the local community and family back in the center and that will be a huge transition. Being forced together (again) will create conflicts and it will take time to realize the need for a closer local community.

The energy matrix.
There is some very clear connections between how much energy a we use and what the society looks like.

Less energy <-----------------------------------> More energy
Simple structure <-----------------------------> Complex structure
Local foundation <----------------------------> Global foundation
All rounders <------------------------------------> Specialists
Shorter connections <-----------------------> Longer connections
Harsher justice <-------------------------------> Mercy justice
Long term investments <-------------------> Short term investments
Small government <--------------------------> Big government
Big family <---------------------------------------> No family
Less taxfunded social security <---------> Taxfunded social security
Very little private loans <------------------> Bloated private loans

I'm not very optimistic in believing that the state or government is going to "do the right thing" and begin the transition to a more stable and sustainable society in a timely and thorough fashion. The state and government IS going to loose power in this transition and people ARE going to be very critical to the role of the state and government. Since WW2 has the state been able to get involved in every thinkably aspect of the citizens life. I don't have an opinion about the size or role of the state, that is beyond the point, the point is that the state have no possibility to maintain this omnipresence it have now. What should be a natural way of scaling back the state (and commune) by looking at the path of expansion, can very likely be that the state (and commune) abandons its primary services (schools, hospitals, collective transportation..) to be able to keep the prestiges areas (diplomacy, universities, trades agreements, EU..), resulting in a distant top heavy organization not delivering the demanded services and that will deepens the split between the citizens and its state.
Local community is going to be the tool that will make everyday life function - I don't believe someone is not going to come to the rescue.

Toolbox for a future - 3 - Open communication technology

2010-02-06T14:00:00.003+01:00

Is a telephone-company natural? Where does it say that there always will be overblown telephone companies with a near monopoly on electric communication? Do these companies do there best to provide us with the best and cheapest product possible? My opinion is that telecom companies has been hampering a lot of natural development and that if they could, they would turn back the clock to before the Internet. Remember the Internet was an ACCIDENT! CCmail and Microsoft tried to build an commercial Internet 1994-95 but couldn't agree on a common standard for exchanging emails. Companies grew tired and turned to the "Internet" awaiting a standard - THAT was the beginning of the Internet. Before 1994 the Universities had failed to see that anyone beside them and the US military (for launching nuclear weapons) could have any use of the technology - They sat on the technology from 1968 to 1993.. Let there be another wireless "accident".
I you google Radio spectrum and take a closer look you will find that "common" people are left with scraps of the spectrum. The radio spectrum is a state owned commodity sold to the highest bidder. And the frequencies we can use without a permit or payment is heavily regulated (max 100mv). A normal GSM phone is from 1 to 2.5 watt and this is a transceiver put directly to the head - Therefore we can conclude that the 100mw limit put on WLAN is not to spare our health. But do not despair - the WW record of WLAN transmission is over 200 km with only 100mw.

Several years ago I began thinking about how I could use my knowledge of the Internet to a better use than pushing more product to the already besieged consumer.
The conclusion became the idea of the SU.I.S. - SUstainable Internet Solution. The idea was a self-configuring self-healing digital communication center-less mesh network. This is over 10 years ago. The idea was not novel - I take no credit. Since then there has been some progress in the area of mesh networking, but no consumer or open source application is ready. The military is using mesh networking since long, but the technology don't seem to trickle-down to the rest of us and thats a pity.
A mesh network could bring much relive in disaster areas and 3. world countries where a central government is either non existing or corrupt. Centralized systems are prone to corruption and easy to disrupt.
Do we need this? Here? We got ADSL and 3G and mobile phones and wired phones, why another (slower) communication network? I regard this as an insurance, just like the fire-department. There is also the question of cost - the common European spends over 100 Eur a month on communication, paying private companies an absurd overprice for eg. SMS. In an economic crises many people will scale back on their communication capability, when we might need I most. I don't like the idea of depending on big companies when trying to (re)organize society. Local communication (witch is most of communication) should not cost full rate mobile phone rates and local Internet traffic should not go across the Atlantic ocean. A wireless mesh network using existing WLAN technology would be a good beginning to liberating communication.
Remember its not the bandwidth you miss when you are off-line - Its the connection, regardless of how slow it might be. A wireless mesh is not going to be fast, but it could be a stable and reliable line of communication.

Several open source mesh system is under development, but it will take some time before we see an application that can be installed on every kind of platform and operating system. Here is also some promising developments.

If you come upon interesting news about open source wireless network mesh'es please make a comment!
(I have decided to have ads on the blog - I suspect that it will give me a better google rating for some strange reason..)

Is Open Source Hardware a new movement?

2010-02-06T00:57:00.002+01:00

Since I started thinking about sustainable technology and then stumbled upon the idea of Open Source Hardware and began trawling the net for the subject it have become clear to me that I am not alone - far from it, but also that the phenomenon is in its infancy - The information is not connected and people are not connected - YET!
Another strange generation phenomenon has also become apparent - The old school versus new school.
Old school is the now 50+ needs that missed the PC/Software/Internet race and still reads magazines like this or this or what about this one. These old men have a very different way of sharing knowledge - you suck up to those with more knowledge (or more toys or buy some fancy stuff useself so others wants to play with you - knowledge is power and you better start pleasing..

New School is another creature. New school IS about sharing.
Its about helping and getting more people interested in your interest. This has also brought some unlikely groups of people in the realms of electronics. Last week I meet 2 young(er than me) woman and to my surprise we talked about Arduino and electronics for the best of an hour. I am very pleased about seeing more than I expected woman in the forums and behind projects I visit. This might also keep a lit on the "I have the fastest, newest, biggest.." male trend that pester male dominated areas.

Another thought I had was the other day when thinking about why this electronics bug has caught on. Its a reaction to being utterly at the mercy of things that we have NO idea about how functions. Basically its about empowering and New school is coming on strong.

Toolbox for a future - 2 - Permaculture

2010-02-03T10:22:00.000+01:00

When thinking about the future it is easy to forget our basic need for food and shelter. Food production used to occupy 90% of the work force. With the help of first coal and then oil, agriculture was radically transformed and mechanized. Today under 1% of the western population work as farmers. The biggest challenge for the future can easily be food production. Modern agriculture IS the use of fossil fuel - many good people are writing a lot about this already.
My focus is technology and my interest is to see if there is some technology that can be of help in the future farming. One of most promising "technologies" I have come about is Permaculture. Its really nothing new, but modern communication and the possibility to send seed and plants across the world has made a new/old way of farming possible and more effective. Permaculture in its current form is not a silver bullet, it is still very labor intensive and heavy work. I have spend many hours talking about this with my eco farmer friends. There is 2 main issues in farming (there is many issues, but me being a techman sees the issues from a technological viewpoint).

Heavy work (like ploughing, digging ditches)
Repetitive work (like weeding, planting)

When I have been going through the different kinds of workload in the farm, ploughing turned up to be hardest problem to see a non-carbon solution to.
There is work going on in the area, but it clear that there is a long way to go before agro-robots is rolling around a field near you.
The challenge of a sustainable agriculture in a carbon starved future is the same as for the rest of society, but food is a basic need and needs special attention.
The degree of complexity that will be sustainable is also a major challenge. How much outside dependency can there be to rely on? Spare-parts? What will the trade value of produce be? How is a transition to be accomplished from city to the country-side? (be sure there is to be a transition). Another strange problem we could be facing is that the current system is "to" effective - meaning that "to" few can provide to much food and that this hampers the transition (back to farming) at the same time that those not working cant afford the food produced. This "problem of efficiency" can be seen today in the way China can manufacture nearly everything needed for the rest of the world. That this is not a sustainable way of organizing a society is becoming blatantly obvious - Term like; "The information society", "The service sector", "The new economy" is VOID. Trading is a 2 way transaction, just as the relation between city and country side is.
Why Permaculture then? The basic philosophy of Permaculture is "most food for least amount of work" but with a twist - Its "most food" for you living at the farm or close to the farm. Permaculture tries to have a huge biodiversity - not a kind of farming thats suited for export or the supermarket chain. A central power might not like Permaculture because its not suited for central control and taxation, but it has the promise of being a way of farming that frees up labor AT THE FARM, locally thereby making it possible to think about and make something else than food (eg. how to build your DIY electric car).

More about Permaculture in a cold climate.

Toolbox for a future - 1 - Electricity and transport

2010-01-21T16:58:00.000+01:00

As I stated before I'm not a strong believer in the unknown God. The future is going to be made up of things we know now, known tools, known solutions and known limits. It's going to be a real cold turkey getting out of the carbon addiction to paraphrase late president Bush. But the important thing to remember is that there IS solutions, there is a way.
The way may not the smooth and easy way we want it to be - but there IS a way.

What is the toolbox of the future?

Electricity and electric transport.
Permaculture
Electronics (Open hardware and DIY)
Open communication technology
Community

These tool can be made sustainable - that mean they can earn back there investment. As a plus these tools are also good for the environment.
Each of the points are major undertaking. And we are to undertake these big, costly projects when resources becomes less available.
Lets take them from the top.

Why electricity?
I have read A LOT about alternatives to oil. Hydrogen, palm-oil, ethanol (1st and second generation technology) and biogas to name some. One of the true wonders of oil is that it is highly compact and storable - meaning it can be put in a car. It sits there for 6 month until you decide to drive 500 km - that i truly amazing. And furthermore oil has the highest energy density next to uranium. Then we just have to make some more oil now don't we.. and sure sure we can "make" oil - the easiest way is to let plants do it (killing whales is another great way since whales are mostly fat) there is just a little catch there. Making food takes up farmland where we other-ways could grow food and modern agriculture has become VERY oil-consuming (1 cal food uses ~ 10 cal oil to produce). Neither does it produce very much oil for the work - In fact if you are to produce oil in the most part of world the you would need more oil for machinery and tools and pesticide and fertilizer than oil produced - the same goes for ethanol except some contryies like Brazil that have LOTS of sun and water and cheap labor, then you can make it work (ERoEI > 1). USA is in fact starving the 3. world by subsidizing Ethanol production with ERoEI less than 1 (and that just plain stupid and horrendous).
Hydrogen isnt better - the only reasonable way to make (in terms of ERoEI) is to convert oil to hydrogen..
Palmoil isn't a silver bullet either...
Biogas has also some problems in terms of scalability that does it very hard to see as an alternative to oil - but small scale biogas is here to stay - as it has been around for 2000 years. But from idea to powering all cars in eg. the UK or Sweden there is a long way to go. And to produce the amount of biogas needed to power all road transportation is doubtful, but trucks and buses seems feasible... but what about me and my car? What is that gonna run on?? Electricity!
The only real alternative to oil in terms of transportation is electricity. The only ones that have a problem of seeing that is the special interest groups. When you get down to the numbers - the electric car is realy a thing of the future.

To sum it up.
Cars - electricity
Trains - electricity
Trucks - biogas
Ships - ships has been sailing before - they can do it again.
Planes - no. There is no real future for transport by air unless some enormous scientific breakthrough.
Then there is all the wonderful thing you can do if you have electricity, like living in 21. century. The electric grid is one of the great wonder of our time that will live on in the post carbon world, the product of a true genius who all to few knows about - Nikola Tesla.
With the grid (we already have) we can power our (electric) cars. We can power machines and electronics. Electricity is THE game-changer making a modern future possible. Its either that or back to 1850 (after some adjustments).

More about permaculture next.

Grid 2.0 (smart grid) - why we need a new power grid.

2010-01-19T19:49:00.000+01:00

How the power-grid works today (in principle).

The grid operator provide power to the grid - with a steady output of 220 volts and 50Hz in EU (110 volt 60Hz USA).
You turn on eg. a washing machine and draws power from the grid. The onset in power-consumption make the Volt level drop on the grid (very little, but still).
The grid operator monitors the Volt-drop and orders more output. That increases the voltage to 50Hz again.
When you turn off the washing machine, the grid voltage rises (very little) and the grid operator adjust the power-output a little down to get 50Hz again.

Thats the way it works very basically and how it have worked since the grid was invented. This way of regulating the grid is working but is really not very efficient. The grid is always counter-reacting to a changes in the grid. The grid is NOT adjusting to the current power-output. That wouldn't be a problem if power-production had a flat-rate cost regardless of the production level or how fast it has to react to changes. But power-production is organized into different categories dependent on how fast it have to (and can) contribute to regulation of grid.

Basepower output - Do not change output.
Medium changing power output - Changes output within minutes.
Eminently changing power output - Changes output within seconds.

Reacting power-production can cost a 100 times more than base power production, so grid-operators go to great length in trying to predict what to power-consumption in the near future in order to be able to count in the biggest changes in power-demand, thereby save money. They look at past statistic, look at the weather forecast, read the TV schedule and predicts the coming need of power to a hight degree - but the are still reacting to changes. That is called regulating by swing-producer.
Power consumption is not ever over the day. Very little power is used nighttime and then BANG - 7.00 - we get up and turn on every kind of electronics we have and use a lot of power. Then it wobbles a bit during the day until we starts preparing dinner in the afternoon (putting on the stove and oven and dishing-machine and washing-machine all within minutes), then turns it all of and goes to sleep.
That means that most of the power-production is idling a large part of the day and that is not very efficient. It also means that grid operator have to be able to call in power supplies to meet demand - something that is not possible with eg. wind power (therefore there is put a cap on how much wind power that grid operators will accept in the total power production). A novel idea is to get demand to react to production - that is called Grid 2.0 or Smart grid.

In a grid 2.0 the grid-operators communicates to the consumer that now is a really good or really bad idea to turn on electronics. The electronics can be made to automatically react to power output or tell the the consumer how the situation are on the grid. A monetary incitement can be given to the consumer to adjust power consumption - cheaper electricity when there is low demand and high when there is high demand. To make this possible communication capabilities has to be build into the washing machine, the freeze, the heating system and so on.

Grid 2.0 will make it possible to produce electricity in a more efficient way. It also make it possible to include more wind power in the total power production.
Denmark is the country with the highest degree of wind power in the power production - 30% of Denmark's electricity is produced with wind power, but Denmark is unlikely to expand that number until a new way or regulating the grid is deployed. 30% - thats it - stop. The rest of the danish electricity is produced by gas and coal power-stations and this a problem Denmark shares with the majority of countries in the world. A sustainable electricity is not possible until the problem of regulation of the grid is solved. Grid 2.0 is one of the solutions and the technology has been there for several years now. Its a question of communication capabilities and (cheap) microcomputers. Communication can be via; GPRS, 3G, Broadband, VHF and direct via the electric cables. And then there has to be a standard and will to implement the technology. I'm pretty sure the biggest problem is the later. Power production has been privatized in most of EU and the Enron case showed clearly that more money can be made from chaos than order. Now Enron did create disorder in order to make money - the private electricity marked is only benefiting from the current faulty market model and statuesque. A Grid 2.0 is a smaller marked - fewer can do the same amount of power with the less disorder in the grid. To let it up to the market to solve this structural problem is irresponsible of the state. A stable and working power-grid for the future is a question of national security not to be taken lightly and left to (friends in) the big companies.
This transition to 2.0 is big and will take many years - it's a huge investment and we should get it started today rather than tomorrow.

Read more about Grid 2.0

PO -& Global warming (or why not just make it easy for your self?)

2010-01-19T12:35:00.000+01:00

Why all this talk about Peak oil? Why not say Global warming? - then everybody knows what we talk about.
The cure is the same for PO (Peak Oil) and GW (Global Warming) - use less energy.
So what is the problem (why do you always have to be so difficult (and gloomy))?
My view on GW is this: First things first - Its like triage. Solve the most pressing problems first and GW isn't the most pressing global problem. For me it is not a question about for or against GW. It is not about if GW is real or not. GW is just not the most pressing problem - PO is. The consequences of GW is maybe 50 years away - PO is here and will have severe consequences within 20 years. That makes it easy to prioritize.
And if we solve PO, we have solved GW - even better.

Again if you don't believe me - fine, okay, sure - please prove me wrong.
More info on Peak oil:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.peakoil.net/
http://www.theoildrum.com/

Praying to an unknown God

2010-01-18T17:25:00.000+01:00

This summer i read "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" (The Black Swan theory here). Its a tragic story about human deficits when it comes to the seldom seen - It seems like we tend to be optimistic about most aspects in life - these days especially when it comes to technology. For the secularized European God has taken a new form - A total believe in progress; Every aspect of life IS going to become better. Anyone who challenges this believe is met, not with a stone, but with a smile and eyes that shows pity for you the backward, who hasn't seen the light. Progress is measured in BNP and new technology. We WILL become richer and we WILL find a technological solution to every problem vi encounter.
I love technology I do! But lately I have been looking harder at the technology we have around us - Is it helping us? Is it really new? How do we use it? What is value, what have a real value? When I began to look into how I could make energy (and I looked in every corner of the beautiful net of an Internet) - and became very very disappointed. It turns out we really hasn't come up with any new working energy PRODUCING technology the last 56 years. The newest kid on the block is the photovoltaic cell 1954. Any other deployed technology is older and I stress the word deployed. Any other new energy producing technology is still in the making - marked "promising". That includes Fusion, Cold fusion, wave power, green algae.. and for the true believer "Zero point energy".
Any other deployed technology since 1954 has all in common - they use energy. Said in other words - we have invented many many new ways to use energy but very few that generate power.
But here comes the the scary part - That doesn't seems to rock our firm believe that a new solution will come to the rescue. Its either "somewhere someone will come up with a solution" or "the oil company's has the recipe for turning water to oil in the safe - you'll see..". This is a fundamentalist religious believe and when discussing with "them" I have to prove that the invisible "God" doesn't exist and thats difficult - needless to say no prof is necessary regarding the ever evading "God".
The faithful believe do not transcend every part of western society - Most people has an insurance thought nothing has happened, believe we must have a defense without a war, have a fire-department without a fire. But technology is going to save us... Maybe it is this one that is going to save us.. or this one, or this??
You don't believe me? ask Helga..

A open hardware DIY motor (electric and with neodymium magnets).

2010-01-18T15:40:00.000+01:00

One of the first true revolutions that took us from the traditional agricultural society was the motor - first steam, then oil or electricity. Having a power source in agriculture other than horse or man was huge. A farmer was often worn out before the age of 50 mainly because of hard bodily labor. A 100w electric motor is doing the work of a hardworking man.
Later years we have seen the coming of the PM electric motor (Permanent neodymium magnets). The introduction of the neodymium magnets was a revolution in terms of efficiency and reliability. Its a simpler motor in construction with no slip-rings. It will run till the roller bearings is worn out - truly a amazing machine. The only problem with the PM motor is the need for a ESC (Electronic Speed Controller). The ESC is a pretty complicated piece of electronics, but in the overall picture I state that this trade-off is worth it. More about the ESC below. And btw. A PM motor IS a PMG (permanent magnet generator or PM alternator for in-lighted. More about the PMG later.
Link to some very simple high performing DIY PM motors here.

A open hardware DIY ESC (Electronic Speed Controller).

2010-01-18T15:39:00.000+01:00

In order to control the electric motor of the future one needs a ESC. This principal is pretty simple - current is pulsed to stator at the right time thereby repelling or attracting the permanent magnets - motor moves. But in order to make the motor the timing has to be pretty good and there is the small problem of determine where the Permanent magnets has moved since last injection - this is done through EMF or a HAL-effect sensor. A PIC then keeps track and fire the coils lets say a 100,000 times a sec. ESC are expensive today but this don't have to be the case for eternity. China has proved it can make ESC for hobby planes and cars pretty cheap and prices are coming down, but off-course the are small and glued together. The power in an ESC is handled by MOSFETS. If the ESC breaks down it surely to be a dead MOSFET - and I would off-course be preferable to be able to change this part without to much hassle (not having a microscope and surgeon hands). Another problem with todays consumer ESC is that they can be reprogrammed (some can, but that comes with a hefty price tag). If you can program your ESC and chose size of MOSFETs you can fit it to practically any PM 3 phase motor independent of size - from 10W to 100KW - the PIC and the logic is the same.
There are a few DIY ESC projects out there - focused on PM motors for RC cars and planes. Thats all very well but a ESC for a RC has to be small (very small) and light, so the projects goes in the direction of miniaturization.
What is needed is a generic open hardware ESC - this is sure to be a project to go down in history.

The open hardware DIY CNC (computer numerical controlled machine).

2010-01-18T15:38:00.000+01:00

There are several DIY CNC projects out there - in many different sizes and shapes and material and with different PICs and program languages. It seems like the hole grail for the DIY savvy - I would not know where to begin or even choose between the projects.
The reason I think there is a reel need for a open hardware CNC is found in the fact of the idiotic ways we come to depend on small pieces of plastic and metal in the machines that we are so ever depending upon. When a consumer product breaks down today the first place to look is often the movable parts - made of plastic. These parts are small and are impossible to repair or remake unless you happens to have a.. CNC or a RepRap (more about the RepRap later). The curse of the plastic button is fund in everything from exspencive cars to hand-tools to radios to.. the list is endless and we are going to live with this crap for generations (especially when we no longer can to through away otherwise perfectly working machines - beside for the broken plastic part that render it useless). Repair will come back into fashion (not because it is funny - but it can become that important). I admire those who can go through a Dumpster and come up with a raygun but the true masters is found in Cuba.
When I visited Cuba in 2004 I was confronted with new car models I did not know (boy nerd thing - don't try to understand). It turned out that the "new" cars was homemade. In Cuba - if you really wants a car, you have to build it yourself.
I would love to see the generic open hardware CNC.

Links to some DIY CNC sites:
http://diylilcnc.org/
http://buildyourcnc.com/
http://www.thebackshed.com/cnc/

The RepRap (a Rapid prototyping machine).

2010-01-18T15:36:00.000+01:00

The Re pRap. The reason for the need of an open hardware rapid prototyping machine is basicly the same as the reasons mentioned above for the CNC machine. Some parts can be made by CNC others cant - they have to be casted.. or made by eg. a RepRap. Why don't I write there is a need for a open hardware Rapid prototyping machine? because the RepRap IS open hardware - and its beautiful. I hope I get the possibility to get/make a RepRap in the near future, but judging from the website there is some way to go before this project is matured - but I like what I see.

The global component translator

2010-01-18T15:35:00.000+01:00

(maybe this exist - I haven't found it - maybe im to stupid to see it when I surf by it, but I need it).
A 7805 - A standard 5 volt current regulator commonly known as 7805 is called I think exactly everything else if you look for it. L7508C, L7508CV, LM78M05, LM314, LP38691 and the list go on. To know that they all can do the job in a simple setup except the one that I also could use in an atom-clock, that is the question. Right there is a complete stop for the uninitiated. A normal scenario is that I find the recipe, at long last, and start looking for the components - only to realize that one of the e.g. chips went out of production 1987 (I might be able to get an ex. from Timbukto for xxx $), but the project is dead in the water - because I don't know that a alternative chip do exist and is called something completely different - Even if I suspect there is an alternative I'll need luck locating that information. My guess is that this is one of the reasons for why it feels completely impossible to begin with electronics. Some have electronics as a hobby - That building electronics is THE thing - not building something you need but just building it. Maybe they started with some of kits for sale out there eg.
- Police siren, "Enter the world of amazing electronic sounds and noises. Create or imitate sirens of all kinds by adjusting 3 trimmers. Powerful sound with a 2W amplifier on the PCB" ((Level 1) even for idiots like me).
I can build: UNIVERSAL START/STOP TIMER, WINDSHIELD WIPER ROBOT OR INTERVAL TIMER, DUAL ELECTRONIC DICE, PINK NOISE GENERATOR (all taken from Velleman). I am a bit unfair, there is some kits that can used for something usefull (ADVERTISEMENT LED DISPLAY WITH GREEN LEDS kit: "..Hello I am a man in need of a life..Hello I am...").
But as soon as I try to think a little myself - I am lost in the wilderness of electronics. That would be sort of okay if it wasn't for the facts that we are totally emerged in electronics, building our life on stuff we (we the majority) don't understand and can't fix. We (the stupid majority) are like kids walking around with machines we regard as small magic boxes that just works (look at this classic video). And it would be kind of funny if it wasn't such a tragedy.. And btw the exact same thing is the case with our relationship to energy (3 years ago I hadn't a clue. I was living happily in oblivion - then I ate that stupid apple (handed to me by a woman) and now I am raving in the streets and cant socialize..
When I understod how few basic electric components that make up the rest of the more complex components I was shocked - WAS THAT IT??? This is not funny, this is a conspiracy - marketing and geeks has succeeded in fooling me into believing electronics to be a great mystery, for years I thought them demigods - HAM geeks are the worst (you need a licenses to say hello). I get that those in the know gets very tired of stupid questions, but I say - help (us, me - the stupid), do it for you own sake - because we will burn down your house in anger the day the grid goes - exposing the false gods. The ravage has already started with the DIY/open hardware movement - It shines a light on what the basis is for electronic industry and there so-called consumer goods.

The open hardware DIY micro wind turbine

2010-01-18T15:34:00.000+01:00

There is a pretty big community around DIY wind power - Its getting there. The design is proven and tested. Design descriptions are pretty clear even for the non-born-handyman. Thanks to a movement of literally hillbillies living off-grid in the deep forest of USA (and a scotch living on a small island) doing a lot of trail and error and tinkering and a strong will to communicate, there is a near open hardware micro wind turbine for the greater good. This wind turbine is doing some real good all over the world - and its a godsend in the 3rd world. Yes you might think thats all very good, but i am white and I live in a civilized western democracy - I would never need one of "these" (I might get one to have one the roof to show my neighborers that I am green and hip and handy (if you cant be hansom - at least you can be handy).
But If the grid goes down for some strange reason - we in the civilized west are thrown back to 1930 in seconds - and if this becomes a more permanent state of affairs - we are worse of the the majority living in the so-called third world is today (they are adapted) - or what about if you for some strange reason cant afford electricity (dont worry your job as web-designer, consultant, coach, tour-guide are here to stay forever - Well, do not take my word for it, Go ahead, ask Helga!) - the result is the same.
A modern house in the northern part of west seize function without grid power. If it loses electricity in the wintertime it cant be heated (the pumps and heating system stops) and risks blowing the water pipes running in walls and floors thereby destroying floors and walls - modern houses must not get wet - ever). And since we have the unbelievable trust in our fellow man and the society as a whole, we can pray that the grid will never ever stop working - And they say we have turned from religion.. Maybe a small open hardware wind turbine is not so bad..

The open hardware DIY charge controller

2010-01-18T15:33:00.001+01:00

The lead acid battery was invented 1859 - its an old technology, its not even very good, its heavy and its poisonous - but so far there is no real alternative to the lead acid battery and thats a real shame. A truly new and reliable battery technology is desperately needed. It is the missing link in what would be the (true) green revolution, but the revolution is put on hold despite many many many promises of breakthroughs in battery technology. It looks like the lead acid battery is staying with us for years to come. Lithium batteries are good, they really are - but they are expensive and resent news tells that it will stay that way for now. Lithium batteries has another drawback - they need a charge controller pr. cell - in an electric car that means several hundred print-boards. Overcharge a lithium battery and you have a nasty firework.
As stated in this blogpost there is a way to go for the generic open hardware lead acid charge controller.

The open hardware & DIY Inverter.

2010-01-18T15:31:00.000+01:00

If you wants to you your homemade (huge investment) electricity - you need an inverter. Inverters are expensive and are sensitive to misuse (I know - I know twice, stupid in square). They are not even very good (square-wave) or very effective (30% loss of top capacity BEFORE you even draws the first watt). Then there is the is the problem of the grid versus homemade electricity. In the perfect case you would use you own electricity first and the top up with the Grid (when you put on the washing machine, the spot welder..) - but that is a no go (or ridiculous expensive if possible). Most grid providers forbids this and they have no interest in loosing this monopoly - this is a technology that will eventually make its way when governments wakes up and that use to take time - a long time. There are some talk about a grid 2.0 and and this inverter would be i part of that new grid. On the forum www.fieldlines.com there are discussions about a open hardware inverter of this sort, but there is a loooong way to go.

The Open hardware/source electric car/cart

2010-01-18T15:26:00.000+01:00

The electric "Volkswagen" is not around the corner - as stated above is the batteries the stumbling stone. But even if the electric car is at a distance, electric vehicles is making its way - but smaller and lighter. The electric scooter is here and its smart and efficient. Another problem with the car is maybe not the technology but our expectations on private transportation. A car is one of the most stupid inventions that has spread to every corner of the world. Of 1 liter of gasoline 1% of the energy is actually moving the person in the car (and most cars drives around with 1 passenger most of the time). 90% energy is wasted as heat and 9% is moving the car - leaving 1% for the main purpose of the car. Why its fashion to drive around with min. a 1000 kg. of iron only say something fundamentally stupid about the human nature. Take a look at the picture - this is a 2010 model ford - 2010! When I watch new American TV-series I'm constantly struck by how truly stupid it looks when a person steps in a car and it looks like a child getting behind the wheel. Make a smaller electric "car" weighing 250 kg - with a max speed of 80 km/h and it only need 1/4 of the batteries a "normal" car would need - and could be made for 8,000 Eur, not 32,000 Eur. Some are working on the problem - seeing is believing.

The case off the Open wind turbine controller (Battery Charger) - a reel need

2010-01-17T22:23:00.000+01:00

I you have ever considered to go all-green and self-sustainable, producing your own food and energy, then somewhere down that line you will stumble upon lead acid batteries. Then you will pounder over the heavy price tag of the batteries and how short lived they are and how they need to be nurtured like babies - fully charged at all time or face the sulfation death in no time. Then you want to combine wind and solar power - thats doable - with the possibility to expand the system if needed - now you are in trouble.. And maybe charge from the grid If.. Try finding that product (without getting a heart-attack when you see the price-tag and realizing its not a scalable solution). You decide to build it yourself because you think you are pretty smart and have a solder iron (somewhere), can read a manual, have a computer at home and at work and in the cellar - how hard can it be? It turns out to be very hard if unless you realize you had forgotten you had a degree in electrical engineering. Its a whole new world with a new language and you surf the Internet for the most trivial questions. The first time I soldered something and IT WORKED - I was very pleased with myself (though it was very trivial).
My first "product" was a wind turbine controller (as seen in the picture - mine was just not as clean looking). It took me 6 months to finish it WITH help. I ordered components from UK, USA and Sweden - all because it couldn't "speak" the language of electronics. I had no idea specific parts could be change to another part i could be locally. I followed the recipe like a blind - stumbling along. Then came the day when every thing came together and it worked and I had no idea how this miracle had happened.
I learned A LOT from this project - but somehow it was humiliating experience. I am surrounded by electronics - My life is based on electronics - I am very interested in computers and gadgets, and still I could only barely build a very simple charge controller. It was a slap in the face. Today, 3 years later, it would be easier, but nothing I do in my sleep. Since then I have been surfing the net for every kind of DIY (Do It yourself) projects. There is a lot of help out there, but the entry-level is high and its a jungle. When it comes to DIY power production there is several sites worth mentioning:

The Otherpower and their huge forum Fieldlines.
The main focus is DIY windpower and building stuff (metalwork, wingprofiles..).
TheBackshed - An AU site with lots of good info, written in a straight forward language with graphics even I "get".
The main focus is DIY windpower, electronics, CNC
Windstuffnow - Mr. Ed Lenz who will go down in history as the Guru of DIY windpower. His Lenz2 turbine is going to be known for eternity.

And speaking of the DIY charger from TheBackshed - It works. It even has a serial out with production values - thats nice - but its a crude charger - ON/OFF. A modern lead acid charger is more than this. Its base level charging and trickle charging and support charging. If there is a wind turbine in the other end of the charger controller then there is several design choices there has to be made (because the common wind-turbine has to be connected/controlled at all time - otherwise it risk running amok self-destructing in mid air throwing splinter hundreds of meters).
Here is an area for much improvement, for a much better, much smarter wind-turbine controller.
I can find a DIY LEGO robot that sets up dominoes, Remote control pellet gun – with scope and Office prank: death from above in 2 min. on the the splendid site Hack a Day - but try to find a DIY small scale wind turbine controller for lead acid batteries (other than the one I linked to). Good luck and I will not rant about what is most needed world wide.
If YOU have found a better solution please comment!

The tech need on a sailboat

2010-01-17T22:20:00.000+01:00

I am a sailor since 15 years and sailing has changed my view on technology. When I began sailing a new reality made it self present:
Everything on the boat I cant understand and repair is a liability. If I cant repair it myself, I bring 2 (or 3 in case of the GPS - its that important). Luckily most sailing gear (hardware) is mend to last and be repaired and with good documentation. Un-luckily most sailing gear it very expensive, but Ive learned to appreciate quality over the years of sailing - I have an old boat and I have repaired everything from the engine to the autopilot to the wiring to the hull it self. Its not long ago I changed from Windows to Linux on my boat PC. The PC is the main navigational unit on the boat and reliability is the no. 1 priority. The move to Linux (Ubuntu on a Fit-Pc) gave me just that. The move was made possible solely because of OpenCPN (open source navigation software for Linux and Win32). A big thanks to the OpenCPN team.

Open hardware for a sustainable future

2010-01-17T18:37:00.000+01:00

Open hardware is nothing new - go back a 100 year and nearly all hardware (technology) was "open". Not only was it open, but it was meant to last and be repaired - costumers wouldn't dream of investing in technology they could not master/understand/repair. Before cheap credit and "Made in China" - baying a machine (car, tractor, mill, drill you name it) was a investment taken from the household saving - and had to last.
It had to be:

Durable
Reliable (here I am talking 50 years if not longer)
Simple
Repairable (either by the owner or the local blacksmith)
Supported (spare-parts should be obtainable for years to come)

As of now we are in the hands of products with these characteristics:

short-lived (breaks down for no apparent reason within months of purchase)
Unreliable
Unnecessarily complex (and glued together)
Unrepairable (unless shipped back to whatever (sweatshop) country it came from, where it is replaced by a new unit totally)
Supported (until the next model comes out in 6 months time)

I convinced the future of technology is going to have the pre-WW2 characteristics. I base this on several reasons:

No possibility to uphold statuesque consumerism.
No possibility to uphold the complexity in the global market.
possibility to uphold the current growth/Fiat based banking system.

If you dont belive me - okay.. watch this or go on living in oblivion

The condensed conclusion of this is the following is that if we wont our (electronic) stuff in the future it has to be: Durable, reliable, repairable and Supported. Put to this cheap and low-energy.

This goal can be achieved in many ways, but I believe the most promising way is the open hardware initiative see eg. this.
Arduino is a very good example of open hardware.
I will in the future try to find good examples of open hardware and give my 2 cents to what open hardware I would like to see.

Idea: Sun blimp

2010-01-16T13:44:00.000+01:00

I am listening to BBC world service. Haiti has crumbled (even further). The describe the total chaos especially at night when the lack of electricity plummets the city into total darkness making every relieve effort impossible.

Idea: A sun-blimp.
Fit a "Goodyear" blimp with thousands of LED lamps - thereby creating an artificial sun lighting the area of interest.
The blimp can simultaneously provide WLAN and GSM connections (coordination and communication seems to be a reoccurring problem in the first important days of an relieve operation.
A modern soft-body blimp should have the lift capacity to carry this and can stay in place eg. the 12 hours a night lasts in the tropics. It will also provide a reference point at night (this can sound a little strange, but when a city as Port-au-Price gets devastated as it is now - even those previously living in the city have problems navigating - all known landmarks has changed). I have a background in civil-defence and have climbed around rubles at night - not funny ever with light.

The idea of this blog and some background

2010-01-16T12:57:00.000+01:00

My idea of this blog is to write about natural things to come and natural inventions and tools we need to adapt to a changing world - mostly of an electric nature.
When engaging in a discussion we need to establish a common ground (this is where the troubles begin). I am of no illusion that this is possibly any time soon if ever, changes are happening to fast now and we are left far and apart on the path to the future and our experience of the reality we live in differs enormously. I will try to describe where I believe we are in space and time at the moment.

Convictions.
- Energy.
Energy is our lifeblood. We use energy to live and form our life. This is the law of entropy, nothing else. This is a scientific believe. The energy I talk about is the energy of known and usable sorts: Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar..
- ERoEI (Energy Return of Energy Invested).
- Finity (as opposed to Infinity). There is a FINITE amount of usable resources on the planet earth.
- Peak oil. We have peaked in oil production and If you don't believe me - read thought this site and then come back and state your case - much to much time (years) have been wasted argumentation against the obvious.
- Energy is "the" money - money isn't energy. Money can be invented, energy cant. If you don't have the energy - money is of no use.

Doom and Gloom

2010-01-16T12:38:00.001+01:00

I am often seen as dark and gloomy, dreaming of cataclysmic future - Thought it is not so.
I have high hopes for the future, for all of us, after we solve a number of problems that threatens us in ways I can't imagine. By pointing out the natural consequences of natural physics I am often considered to be negative. I am of the strong belief that the future is a product of our work and our decisions and not of hopes and prayers.
We shape our future, invent it, create it based on the physical reality we live in.